What the preliminary count shows
New Zealand’s Electoral Commission published its preliminary results for the November 7 general election. Labour had 29.36% of the party vote and 36 projected seats. National had 29.21% and 42 projected seats, all from electorates. The commission’s projection put National, ACT and New Zealand First at 67 seats combined in a 131-seat Parliament. A majority in a chamber of that size would take 66. Those figures describe the preliminary count and could change.
How can the party vote leader have fewer seats?
Under mixed-member proportional representation, voters make two choices. The electorate vote selects a local MP, while the party vote largely determines how many seats a party gets in total. List seats usually make up the gap between that entitlement and the number of electorates a party wins. If it wins more electorates than its proportional entitlement, it keeps those seats. That extra number is called an overhang and can make Parliament larger than its usual 120 seats. This is how a narrow party-vote lead can coexist with fewer seats.
Why November 27 matters
The commission estimated about 399,000 special votes still to be checked and counted. These include overseas ballots and can also include votes cast away from a voter’s home electorate. During the official count, staff recheck ordinary ballots and assess which special ballots are valid. Close electorate races can change, along with the party-vote totals that determine list seats. The commission schedules the official results for Friday, November 27.
What decides who governs?
The November 27 release will settle the official vote and seat totals. Government formation is a separate step. The Governor-General looks for public evidence that a party or group of parties can secure the confidence of the House. A coalition or a support agreement can provide that evidence. The preliminary 67-seat sum shows what the three parties would have together on the current figures. Their ability to form a government depends on the confirmed seats and the agreements they reach.
Sources & further reading
- Electoral Commission: November 7 preliminary results and official count schedule
- Electoral Commission: how MPs are elected and how overhangs work
- Electoral Commission: how general election votes are counted
- Electoral Commission: MMP and agreements to form a government
- The Guardian: election-night reporting and coalition talks
- Parliament photograph license: CC BY-SA 4.0